As the tenure of Governor Godwin Obaseki as the Edo state governor expires on November 12, 2020, there are strong indications that governor may not secure the second term ticket from his party, the All progressive Congress (APC) and hence may be on his way out of the Edo government house unless something unusual happens anytime soon.
It is no longer news that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has fixed September 10 for the governorship election in Edo State and this is because the tenure of the incumbent governor of the state, Godwin Obaseki will end in November, 2020.
In view of this, the APC has scheduled June 22 for its primary election where the party flag bearer for the election will emerge. Obaseki, on his own, has also submitted nomination form to contest in the primary.
As of the time of this report, APC has cleared six aspirants for the primary. They are Osagie Ize-Iyamu, Godwin Obaseki, Dr. Pius Odubu, Engr. Chris Ogiemwonyi, Osaro Obazee and Matthew Aigbuhuenze Iduoriyekemwen.
Although Obaseki, as the incumbent governor of the state will be contesting in the primary, he’s not likely to clinch the party ticket comes June 22 as a result of many factors. Top among the factors that may work against Obaseki is the Adams Oshiomohle, the National Chairman of APC’s factor.
Obaseki and Oshiomohle have been at loggerhead for a very long time and they have not settled their differences till date. Currently, there is Oshiomohle faction in Edo APC just as there is Obaseki faction. The two factions will log it out against each other during the primary. However, Oshiomohle being the National chairman of the party is likely to laugh last.
Another factor that may work against Obaseki’s return as Edo State governor is the Ize-Iyamu factor. Ize-Iyamu is currently the major contender of the state governor seat. He was the candidate of the people’s Democratic Party (PDP) in 2016, who nearly won the election. He has large supporters.
This time around, he’s contesting against Obaseki within the same party. Adding to this is the fact that Ize-Iyamu is the candidate of Oshiomohle. This means that Oshiomohle and Ize-Iyamu forces are up against the lonely Obaseki force.
The direct primary adopted by the Central Working Committee (NWC) of the party is another factor that will likely work against Obaseki. This is largely because the governor cannot lobby every member of the party. Recalled that direct primary was adopted against the immediate past governor of Lagos state, Akinwunmi Ambode and eventually lost the party ticket to Mr. Babajide sanwo-Olu, the current governor.
Obaseki has run to the Progressive governors to beg on his behalf ahead of the primary for preferential treatment ahead of other aspirants but that strategy appears not yielding desirable result, as the party currently insisted on direct primary but promises to be fair and transparent.
The incumbent has just signed to law a bill banning large gathering in the state, and the move will definitely not allow the party to hold direct primary in the state but of course the party will obviously not bereft of solution.
Currently, each of the faction is mapping out strategy to defeat another but Oshiomohle may laugh last by unseating Obaseki unless the former governor decided to forgive the incumbent in few days to come.
Another option Obaseki has, if he’s not ready to pack his load out of the Edo Government house in November, is to defect to another party, but another question that also beg for an answer is to which party and when? Will obaseki return? Will Oshiomohle laugh last? Fingers are crossed. Pundits have however said the political drama in the state will be very interesting in the few days ahead.
